A new medium-term country risk assessment for Ukraine

In mid-September 2026, the CMSR prepared a new medium-term country risk assessment for Ukraine, following its own country risk assessment methodology.

We classify Ukraine as a country with very high medium-term country risk (E).

The CMSR assigns the assessed country to one of five risk categories:

·        A - Minimal medium-term country risk

·        B - Very limited medium-term country risk

·        C - Limited medium-term country risk

·        D - High medium-term country risk

·        E - Very high medium-term country risk

In addition to the final country risk assessment, each country risk category, i.e. political, economic and financial risk, is also classified into one of these five risk categories.

Medium-term political risk remains very high.  The war with Russia remains the principal risk factor, compounded by growing tensions between the presidential office, the government and parliament, as well as corruption. Anti-corruption investigations reveal serious governance problems but also demonstrate a degree of institutional independence. Parliament has become less predictable in approving reforms, potentially delaying external financial support. Free and fair elections are unlikely while intense fighting continues, and the transition to a post-war political system will be a major challenge. A rapid peace agreement remains unlikely. Under the EIU baseline scenario, there is a 75% probability that fighting will end by the end of 2028, although the risk of a frozen conflict remains elevated. Relations with the US remain functional but are less predictable than before 2025. Ukraine will therefore continue to depend heavily on political, military and financial support from the EU, where internal disagreements could delay disbursements. NATO membership remains unlikely.

Medium-term economic and financial risks both remain high.  Compared with May 2025, the economic risk score has improved slightly while the financial risk score has deteriorated; the overall country risk rating remains unchanged. Ukraine will remain dependent on international financial assistance in the medium term. According to EIU forecasts, real GDP growth will reach 1.5% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028. The budget deficit is projected at 18% of GDP this year, while public debt will reach 109% of GDP. Average inflation is expected to fall from 12.7% last year to 8% in 2026, but will remain elevated. With imports growing faster than exports, the current account deficit is forecast at 17.6% of GDP this year. Despite the war, the banking sector remains relatively stable and well capitalised, while external debt is projected to rise to USD 274.5 billion by the end of 2026. Reconstruction will be a central priority after the war, with recovery and reconstruction needs estimated at almost USD 588 billion. Any reduction or delay in external support would sharply increase economic and financial risks.

Relations between Slovenia and Ukraine will remain close.  Slovenia will continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and EU integration, while bilateral cooperation is gradually expanding to infrastructure and economic reconstruction. Slovenian exports to Ukraine rose by 1.1% in 2025 to EUR 254.9 million, while imports from Ukraine increased by 9% to EUR 63.8 million. Slovenian companies are interested in participating in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Ukraine Medium-Term Country Risk Assessment can be ordered at: info@cmsr.si.

More information: darja.zlogar@cmsr.si.