A new medium-term country risk assessment for Ghana

Beginning of March 2025, the CMSR prepared a new medium-term country risk assessment for Ghana, following its own country risk assessment methodology.

We classify Ghana as a country with a high medium-term country risk (D).

The CMSR assigns the assessed country to one of five risk categories:

·         A - Minimal medium-term country risk

·         B - Very limited medium-term country risk

·         C - Limited medium-term country risk

·         D - High medium-term country risk

·         E - Very high medium-term country risk

In addition to the final country risk assessment, each country risk category, i.e. political, economic and financial risk, is also classified into one of these five risk categories.

Medium-term political risk remains high. Ghana will remain one of the most democratic and politically stable countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as evidenced by the peaceful conduct of elections and the smooth transition of power. A new president and a new government will bring more optimism in the short term, but this government will also have to face up to some of the problems that have plagued the country for a long time. In the medium term, we expect an improvement in economic stability, however, it will be more difficult to tackle the high unemployment rate among young people, the poor working conditions in the public sector, the decline in living standards and the discontent over illegal mining. These may trigger labour unrest and strikes, but we do not expect these to spread to the whole country. As before, they are likely to take place in urban centres and will be peaceful in nature but may cause temporary disruption to business. The political scene will continue to be characterised by the clash between the now ruling NDC and the formerly ruling NPP, however, the orientations on most policies will remain mostly the same. The NDC will find it easier to pass reforms as it has a comfortable majority in Parliament. Corruption and cronyism are endemic and even a change of government will not bring major changes. Ghana will continue its efforts to increase its resilience to the spread of violent extremism, particularly on the border with Burkina Faso. Ghana's relations with the international community and countries in the region will remain good, and China will continue to be the country's most important partner. Relations with the West could be strained by the controversial anti-LGBTQ+ law, which in the worst-case scenario could suspend credit disbursement. Traditionally good relations with the US have become more precarious with Trump's election, and the USAID funding freeze will also have a negative impact on Ghana.

Medium-term economic risk has declined over the last two years but remains high. Financial risk is also high and bordering on very high. The successful completion of the debt restructuring will allow for greater economic stability and create the foundations for sustainable growth in Ghana. GDP growth has already picked up and will continue to rise in the coming years. Over the period 2026-2029, the EIU forecasts an average annual growth rate of just over 6 per cent. The government will pursue a policy of fiscal consolidation this year and over the next two years, which will reduce the budget deficit, but is likely to increase spending when the IMF agreement expires. Inflation will remain high in the medium term. The current account surplus on the balance of payments will turn into a low deficit next year, partly because of the resumption of external debt repayments.

We believe that relations between Slovenia and Ghana will remain good and friendly. In the medium term, trade volumes, especially Slovenian exports, will gradually strengthen and Slovenia will continue to record a surplus in the bilateral trade balance. On the other hand, despite the interest expressed on both sides, we do not yet expect significant Slovenian direct investment in Ghana.

Ghana Medium-Term Country Risk Assessment can be ordered at: info@cmsr.si 

More information: darja.zlogar@cmsr.si